Wednesday 14 September 2022

US Inflation Data -2022

 

Dollar slumps after CPI data suggests Fed may ease rate hikes

Core US inflation rises to 40-year high, securing big Fed hike; stock futures fall



  • U.S. Inflation Rate History and Forecast Year Inflation Rate YOY Business Cycle (GDP Growth) Events Affecting Inflation 1946 18.1% Expansion (-11.6%) Budget cuts 1947 8.8% Expansion (-1.1%) Cold War spending 1948 3.0% Nov. peak (4.1%) 1949 -2.1% Oct trough (-0.6%) Fair Deal, NATO 35 more rows .
    • United States Inflation Rate 1914-2018 | Data | Chart | Calendar. Annual inflation in the US fell to 2.3 percent in September of 2018 from 2.7 percent in August and below market expectations of 2.4 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate in seven months, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in gas prices and smaller increases in fuel and shelter costs.
    • The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second straight month to 8.3% in August of 2022, the lowest in 4 months, from 8.5% in July but above market forecasts of 8.1%. The energy index increased 23.8%, below 32.9% in July. Smaller increases were reported for gasoline costs (25.6% vs 44%) and fuel oil (68.8% vs 75.6%) while inflation sped up for natural gas (33% vs 30.5%) and electricity (15.8%, the highest since August 1981). On the other hand, inflation rose for food (11.4%, the most since 1979), shelter (6.2%, the most since 1984), and used cars and trucks (7.8%). Compared to the previous month, consumer prices were up 0.1%, following a flat reading in July and compared to forecasts of a 0.1% drop. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, increased 6.3% on a year, the most since March, and up markedly from 5.9% hit in both June and July. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics                                                                                                                                                                              

      • The Fed focuses on the core inflation rate, which excludes gas and food prices. These volatile prices change from month to month, hiding underlying inflation trends. The Fed sets a target inflation rate of 2%. If the core rate rises much above that, the Fed will execute a contractionary monetary policy.
        1. The annual inflation rate for the United States is 8.5%
           for the 12 months ended July 2022 after rising 9.1% previously — the most since November 1981, according to U.S. Labor Department data published Aug. 10. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on Sept. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET.                                                                                                                                                           CPI +0.1%         
                                                                         
        • (Bloomberg) -- Inflation soared to 13% in Phoenix last month, a record for any US city in data going back 20 years and more than twice as high as San Francisco. The World’s Hottest Housing Markets Are Facing a Painful Reset Stock Rout Deepens as Inflation Woes Hit Sentiment: Markets Wrap
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